StageScopeStage Compass
Data as of 2026-09-28 UTC · Generated 2026-09-29T02:34:50Z · Logic version v1w210p
Weinstein stage analysis · Binance USDⓈ-M perpetuals · daily

See which stage the perpetual futures market is in

The top 200 Binance USDⓈ-M USDT perpetuals by 30-day volume, among contracts with at least 210 daily bars, classified every day with the four-stage method from Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. Long and short signals are shown side by side; the track record is kept at 1× notional and includes slippage, fees, funding and liquidations. Everything is downloadable and reproducible.

AdvancingBTC perpetual stage nowIn stage for 14 days
50%of the perp universe in Stage 2N = 200
16%of the perp universe in Stage 4N = 200
0/0Today's signals long / shortLong underpowered · short rejected
Risk warning Futures carry liquidation risk: leverage magnifies losses and a short, sharp move can wipe out your entire margin. Every signal here is recorded at 1× notional (no leverage) and is not a recommendation to use any leverage. We record at the daily close and do not simulate intraday liquidation.

BTC perpetual (BTCUSDT) current stage

Stage 2 · Advancing

In stage for 14 days (~2.0 weeks), since 2026-09-15

Close 83,461.00 · 210-day MA 71,047.93 (+17.5%) · MA slope rising

55,67568,93685,356105,687130,8602024-102025-012025-042025-072025-102026-012026-042026-07

BTC perpetual, last two years: close (last-price daily bars, log scale) and 210-day MA; background = stage of the day

Data as of 2026-09-28 UTC · Generated 2026-09-29T02:34:50Z

Perp universe breadth: share in each stage

Stage 2 · Advancing
49.5%
Stage 1 · Basing
2.0%
Stage 3 · Top area
0.5%
Stage 4 · Declining
16.5%
Undetermined
31.5%

Stages 1 + 2 combined：51.5%（103/200）· Previous day 50.5% · 7 days ago 49.5% · The book's measure (Ch. 3: share in Stages 1 and 2)

Above the 210-day MA：78.0%（156/200）· Our supplementary measure (not in the book); denominator = coins with a 210-day MA

Universe N=200 (top 200 by 30-day volume among perpetuals with ≥ 210 daily bars)

Stage distribution since 2020 →

Data as of 2026-09-28 UTC · Generated 2026-09-29T02:34:50Z

Today's signals Long: research underpowered · Short: research rejected

Long (0) Research: underpowered

No signals today

Short (0) Research: rejected

No signals today

All signals and track record → · Not investment advice · recorded at 1× notional, not a leverage recommendation · short rule rejected by research

Data as of 2026-09-28 UTC · Generated 2026-09-29T02:34:50Z

Stage changes today

KMNO Undet.→Advancing · LTC Undet.→Advancing · POWER Declining→Undet.
Data as of 2026-09-28 UTC · Generated 2026-09-29T02:34:50Z

Track record

Out-of-sample (live since the futures launch: 2026-09-29)

Long

No closed signals yet（Open 0）

Short

No closed signals yet（Open 0）

Backfilled (pre-launch, recomputed with the same rules, not published at the time)

Long

413Closed
21.8%Win rate
-0.9%Mean
-5.5%Median
-54.7%Worst
+789.7%Best
18 daysAvg. holding
11Open
0Liquidated

Mean of the four parts (price / slippage / fees / funding)：+3.34% / -0.35% / -0.10% / -3.75%

Short

2218Closed
31.5%Win rate
-1.0%Mean
-9.5%Median
-100.0%Worst
+100.3%Best
80 daysAvg. holding
63Open
12Liquidated

Mean of the four parts (price / slippage / fees / funding)：-0.35% / -0.48% / -0.10% / -0.41%

Data as of 2026-09-28 UTC · Generated 2026-09-29T02:34:50Z