CTK Weinstein stage analysis

As of 2026-10-14 (UTC), CTK (Binance spot) closed at 0.1232, 9.3% below its 210-day moving average, which is falling; under the Weinstein stage rules it is in Stage 4 · Avoid (declining), for 253 days (since 2026-02-04).

Current stage: Stage 4 · Avoid (declining)
Duration: 253 days
Since: 2026-02-04
Close: 0.1232
210-day MA: 0.135899
Distance to MA: -9.3%
MA slope (20-day): -3.06%
Volume ratio (14-day): 0.53
Relative strength (vs BTC): -5.9
30-day volume: $50M
Universe rank: #194
Data date: 2026-10-14 UTC

Flip conditions: where tomorrow's (2026-10-15) close would change the stage

Arithmetic on this site's rules: a hypothetical close for tomorrow is appended to CTK's daily series and everything is recomputed, to see what the raw stage and the signals would be. This is arithmetic on the rules; it does not mean the price will get there and it is not a forecast.

210-day MA crossing price

If tomorrow closes above 0.1357789, the close will be above tomorrow's 210-day MA; at or below 0.1357789 it will be below it (tomorrow's MA averages the last 209 closes and tomorrow's close, so the crossing price is the sum of the last 209 closes ÷ 209). Today's close 0.1232 is below today's MA.

Tomorrow's raw stage

Tomorrow's close → Raw stage

below 0.1357789 → Avoid (declining) · If it then holds every day: confirmed stage unchanged
above 0.1357789 → Undet. · If it then holds every day: confirmed after 3 days at the earliest (2026-10-17 close)

If tomorrow closes unchanged (0.1232), the raw stage is Stage 4 · Avoid (declining). Under this site's rules, if tomorrow closes above 0.1357789, the raw stage becomes an unclear stage; a lower close does not change it. This is arithmetic on the rules; it does not mean the price will get there.

The confirmed stage (the "current stage" on this page) only switches after the raw stage has been the same for 3 days in a row. Today's raw stage is Stage 4 · Avoid (declining), for 255 days in a row; the confirmed stage is Stage 4 · Avoid (declining). The list above covers 50%–150% of today's close (0.0616 – 0.1848).

Signal trigger prices (tomorrow's close)

Buy: tomorrow closes above 1.009 and tomorrow's volume is at least 33,894,178.42 (quantity traded, not value). Also needed: the coin is still in the universe tomorrow with a 30-day average daily volume of at least $5M, and there is no open or pending signal on the same side (except one whose exit signal fired today and closes at tomorrow's close). Altcoins also need BTC's confirmed stage tomorrow to be Stage 1 or 2 (BTC today: Stage 2 · Advancing).
Exit (positions only): tomorrow closes below 0.1221426 (below tomorrow's MA × 0.90).

A signal appears at tomorrow's close and, under this site's ledger rules, fills at the close the day after (see the method page).

Daily chart and stages

Loading chart…

BasingAdvancingTopAvoid (declining)Undet.

Background colour = confirmed stage of the day; orange line = 210-day MA; ▲▼ = fills and exits of this site's signals; dots = stage changes. About the last two years; scroll to zoom, drag to pan; coins whose two-year high is more than 8× the low default to a log scale (switch at top right).

Stage changes (last 12)

Date
2026-02-04	Undet.	→ Avoid (declining)
2026-01-31	Basing	→ Undet.
2026-01-13	Avoid (declining)	→ Basing
2025-11-19	Basing	→ Avoid (declining)
2025-11-03	Avoid (declining)	→ Basing
2025-10-27	Undet.	→ Avoid (declining)
2025-10-03	Avoid (declining)	→ Undet.
2025-09-27	Undet.	→ Avoid (declining)
2025-09-20	Avoid (declining)	→ Undet.
2025-09-16	Undet.	→ Avoid (declining)
2025-09-13	Avoid (declining)	→ Undet.
2025-01-28	Top	→ Avoid (declining)

Signal record on this site

Coin	Buy	Entry	Exit	Reason	Return
CTK	Buy	2024-06-19 @ 0.814746	2024-06-21 @ 0.7718	Crossed below MA	-5.5%
CTK	Buy	2024-06-14 @ 0.827898	2024-06-18 @ 0.838831	Crossed below MA	+1.1%
CTK	Buy	2024-06-12 @ 0.744165	2024-06-13 @ 0.827875	Crossed below MA	+11.0%
CTK	Buy	2024-05-30 @ 0.907014	2024-06-11 @ 0.811441	Crossed below MA	-10.7%

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