{
 "symbol": "ORCA", "name": "Orca", "review_date": "2026-10-08",
 "reviewer": "AI", "model_id": "claude-fable-5-1", "logic_version": "value_v1", "prompt_sha256": "58434c62f807c2035cf603f7f93e6e22db880e9f4172968767efef7d1f326065",
 "audit": true,
 "one_sentence_zh": "Orca 是 Solana 的集中流动性 DEX（Whirlpools），交易者支付 swap 费、87% 归 LP、12% 归协议，其中 40% 程序化回购 ORCA 注入 xORCA 质押金库；但 2026-09-29 的新提案要把 80% 协议费转给团队、xORCA 份额降到 10%。",
 "one_sentence_en": "Orca is Solana's concentrated-liquidity DEX (Whirlpools): traders pay swap fees, 87% to LPs and 12% to the protocol, of which 40% programmatically buys ORCA into the xORCA staking vault; a 2026-09-29 proposal would redirect 80% of protocol fees to the team and cut xORCA's share to 10%.",
 "red_lines": {
   "R1": {"hit": false, "note": "收入链上可核：DefiLlama 30 日费用 $10.7M、持币人收入 $514K（口径：12% 协议份额的 40%）；官网称日交易量 $250M+。", "sources": ["https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/orca?dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue", "https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/orca?dataType=dailyFees", "https://www.orca.so/"]},
   "R2": {"hit": false, "note": "程序化回购来自协议费；另有 2025-07 批准的国库 SOL/USDC 酌情回购（24 个月窗口）——资金来自历史费用国库而非卖币/增发。", "sources": ["https://forums.orca.so/t/1115", "https://forums.orca.so/search.json?q=buyback"]},
   "R3": {"hit": false, "unlock_12m_frac_of_circ": 0.23, "note": "总量 75M、流通 60.8M，未流通 14.2M 为社区国库（非团队/投资人归属），上限 23%；但新提案拟把这 14.2M 转入团队控制的 Strategic Account 用于收购，需关注。", "sources": ["https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/orca?localization=false&tickers=false&community_data=true&developer_data=false", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1281"]},
   "R4": {"hit": false, "note": "ORCA 有治理权（Realms 投票）与经济权利（xORCA 回购收益）；但新提案拟把治理范围缩到仅稀释投票。", "sources": ["https://docs.orca.so/governance/overview", "https://docs.orca.so/governance/xorca", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1281"]},
   "R5": {"hit": false, "note": "一句话说得清。", "sources": ["https://docs.orca.so/governance/xorca"]},
   "R6": {"hit": false, "note": "未发现被盗/强制下架/跑路；但治理争议激烈（见 notes）。", "sources": ["https://forums.orca.so/t/1281"]}
 },
 "A_judge": {"mechanism_executing": true, "mechanism_desc": "xORCA 程序化回购：协议费 12% 份额的 40%（2026-01-13 由 20% 提至 40%，理事会称'已技术实现并上线'）买入 ORCA 注入 xORCA 金库。理事会 2026-01 回应透明度质询：程序化已购约 1.33M ORCA；团队另公开市场购入 1.8M ORCA，剩 $7.2M 预算；团队在 2026-10 回帖称先前回购额度已用 70%、余约 $3M USDC。未找到可点开的链上回购交易清单，文档列出金库地址但无执行明细。DefiLlama 持币人收入口径与文档一致。", "sources": ["https://docs.orca.so/governance/xorca", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1129", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1115", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1281", "https://docs.orca.so/governance/treasury", "https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/orca?dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue"]},
 "B": {
   "one_sentence": {"score": 2.5, "evidence": "DEX、交易者付 swap 费、费用分配比例明确。", "sources": ["https://docs.orca.so/governance/xorca", "https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/orca?dataType=dailyFees"]},
   "moat": {"score": 1.5, "evidence": "Solana 流动性深度（TVL ≈ $330M，累计交易量 $500B+），近 90 天费用 ≈ $46.2M vs 前 90 天 ≈ $23.6M（+96%）在变宽；但 DEX 切换成本低，Raydium/Meteora 竞争激烈。", "sources": ["https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/orca?dataType=dailyFees", "https://api.llama.fi/protocol/orca", "https://www.orca.so/"]},
   "ten_years": {"score": 1.0, "evidence": "Solana DEX 基础设施有持续需求；但若没有它可被替代，且团队正提议把资源转向'收购'与'保密新产品'，主业方向不确定。", "sources": ["https://forums.orca.so/t/1281", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1129"]},
   "people_governance": {"score": 0.5, "evidence": "负面：2026-09-29 提案拟将费用分配改为 10/10/80（80% 归团队运营）、把 14.2M ORCA 国库与约 7 万 SOL 转入团队控制账户、解散理事会并把治理缩到仅稀释投票；社区质疑投票机制（xORCA 7 天解锁 > 5 天投票期无法投票）与内幕交易；此前社区指出约 6 个月国库零回购。正面：团队披露 42 FTE、年运营约 $11M。", "sources": ["https://forums.orca.so/t/1281", "https://forums.orca.so/t/1115"]}
 },
 "C_judge": {
   "users_growth": {"score": 1.0, "evidence": "无活跃地址数据；以费用为代理：近 90 天 ≈ $46.2M vs 前 90 天 ≈ $23.6M（+96%，由 WebFetch 对 DefiLlama 日序列求和，近似值）。", "sources": ["https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/orca?dataType=dailyFees"]},
   "utility": {"score": 0.5, "evidence": "交易/LP 不需持币；持币仅为 xORCA 收益与治理。", "sources": ["https://docs.orca.so/governance/xorca"]},
   "culture": {"score": 0.5, "evidence": "Solana meme/资产发行生态带来零售流量（官网'asset launches'），无社媒增速数据。", "sources": ["https://www.orca.so/"]},
   "web3_direction": {"score": 0.5, "evidence": "DEX 是 web3 核心方向。", "sources": ["https://docs.orca.so/governance/overview"]}
 },
 "confidence": "medium",
 "notes": "最大风险不是生意而是治理：若 1281 号提案通过，持币人收入份额从 40% 降到 10%（DefiLlama 口径的 $514K/30d 将缩至约 $130K），14.2M ORCA（流通的 23%）转入团队控制。评分卡若在提案结果前签发，A 维按 40% 计的收益率会高估。"
}